Not gonna lie… It scared me when they mentioned that we only have 2025-2031 to properly reduce emissions and save at least half of humanity.
Also, it was interesting how they mentioned the fossil fuel tactics that are similar to the cigarette industry on distorting data.
https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/10_climate_facts_the_fossil_fuel_cartel_never_wants_you_see
Is it true that we have so little time left?
I live in a hot place and am pretty doomer about this.
I feel like we (Australia) are going to be torpedoing boats of refugees if food insecurity in SEA gets worse.
It’s mostly right. Idk if the predictions are true, but the situation is dire. Most people know this, they have just not mentally accepted it fully, and do not know what to do about it. Their legal solution is futile and not nearly sufficient for the reality. If you want a reasonable depiction of the reality and what it takes to save it I recommend Socialism or Extinction. If everyone understood the ideas presented in the book we’d have a better chance of actually doing something.
Thanks for the book recommendation!
It’s much worse than people realize it is.
It is true, and it is much worse than what mainstream lets on or the average psyche understands.
The IPCC is heavily incentivized (coerced) to let out conservative/watered-down data because of the capitalist funding and the panic/heavy depression that would result as a release of the information we actually know.
Unfortunately, it is already too late to save a large chunk of humanity and life in general on this planet. Unfortunately, there will be horrible things happening (already are) at a large scale that will probably not be solved by smart people somewhere.
This shouldn’t paralyze you, like we can’t give up. It’s not like an “over, or not over” thing, it’s still a spectrum and 4 degrees of warming is exponentially worse than 2.7 or whatever. But we need to be realistic and start developing harm reduction and not pretend we can stay below 1.5 or whatever garbage the MSM is still spewing.
I very much agree, continuing to pretend that we can somehow avoid the disaster is no different then pretending that it’s not happening. We need to be realistic about where we are and start thinking about mitigation strategies. Accepting that we have a catastrophe on our hands doesn’t mean giving up, it means thinking about what can be done and focusing effort in productive ways.
Incidentally, I’ve noticed that China is doing a big push for nuclear power and they’re also increasingly investing into indoor farming. I think these are two critical technologies that will be extremely important going forward. As the climate continues to deteriorate, it’s going to be extremely important to ensure reliable food production. Indoor farms can be built right within cities where majority of the population is concentrated, ensuring food supply for the population. Meanwhile, nuclear plants provide a reliable source of power that can be used in these farms as well as for stuff like air conditioning when there are major heat waves happening.
Thank you for your response! After reading that, I have been exploring some ideas for Harm reduction such as ClimateSafe Villages, migrating and/or hardening housing. What other realistic harm reduction strategies could you advise me to look further into?
I mean you covered some pretty serious solutions, but the only things I can think of (I’m not an expert) are the indoor/vertical/hydroponic farming mentioned above, or genetically modifying crops to withstand horrible conditions, or the good 'ole painting houses and streets white to lower temperatures.
There’s probably a lot more information out there, but I’m just not aware of most of it. I know mostly about how bad things are, not necessarily how we should fix it quickly.
It goes without saying the only way we sustainably fix it will be under socialism.
if we only have that time to save half of humanity, how much is already fucked no matter what?
A ton of things. Just check all of the places around the globe that have low or no food production or scarce water for starters. Also, places that are highly energy dependent such as car dependent suburbia might be desolated soon. The article also cites plenty of human system dynamics that could be thrown out of the window due to the “catabolic” collapse.
Blaming fossil fuel companies will not work without addressing the de facto international command economy under Pax Americana and Bretton Woods institutions that lead the expansion of Capitalism and Neo-Liberalism under the pretense of ‘globalism’. The Capitalists will always find a way to produce pollution without fossil fuel as a method to externalize consequence of their actions to developing countries and Indigenous groups. For example, the inability of Capitalism to deal with negative externality allow the Pax Americana to dump toxic factory chemicals and landfill with highly toxic leachate into federal reserve concentration camps to massacre the North American First Nation people until the Indigenous people forfeit their property ownership rights and the reparation for the fake school Holocaust that became the Nazi Holocaust. The solution is to implement a Socialist system where the government serve the working class and marginalized groups in place of the current Pax Americana system that allow the rich 1% to free ride on the poor 99% to ‘produce’ the non-existent trickle down effect that justifies authoritarianism.
allow the Pax Americana to dump toxic factory chemicals and landfill with highly toxic leachate into federal reserve concentration camps to massacre the North American First Nation people until the Indigenous people forfeit their property ownership rights and the reparation for the fake school Holocaust that became the Nazi Holocaust.
can you elaborate on how the First Nation holocaust became the Nazi Holocaust?
Yea that is worded kinda poorly.
I know that many corporations dumped industrial waste in Indian reservations, but IDK what what that has to do with the federal reserve. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-talk-reservations-about-toxic-waste/
I know that the Nazi’s admired the US’s “manifest destiny” against indigenous peoples and applied it to eastern Europe as “libenstram” https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=aQ7cidL4N9k
“Fake school holocaust” might be refering to the ethnic cleansing of indiginous people to either get beaten to death or forget their original language. These “schools” were brutal. Many died. https://time.com/6177069/american-indian-boarding-schools-history/
Hitler looked at what US whites did to Natives and thought “damn, we need summa dat”
I have a strong desire to get a PhD in environmental policy to try and get close to some form of person who can pass ideas to those who move the levers of power but have some idea that is pointless given how even the most mild assessments by people like the IPCC are ignored.
Issue is I feel like my STEM degree is equally useless because technology isn’t what’s holding us back even if I could get a job in a field that develops such technology. Unfortunately anything I see in renewables or power is out of reach with my experience and I’d spend just as much time making things worse in another industry racking up the requisite years of experience as I would getting said PhD
I logically understand a mass movement is our only solution but feel like I have to spend my 2000 hours or so a year working doing something related to climate or I’ll lose my mind. Anyone else thought through this at all and have insights?
I have been living away from home in an extremely cold part of the world for a few years now.
This is a location that should be -10c at minimum all winter long. Usual temp is -15-20c with lows in the -25’s, there are supposed to be large snowfalls that are feet deep that happen so constantly that the new snow compacts the old. You used to need ski pants and large thick overcoats. Winter tires on busses and cars, trains would need flows on them.
None of that has happened. We barely have had any -10c days in the past years. We didn’t hit it once this year. There was one 8cm snow that melted the same day. I’ve been wearing a light jacket, hoodie, or thin pants all winter. We saved hundreds of dollars on the heating system because we barely needed to turn it on.
Spring has already started. The birds are chirping in the morning and the temps are 10-15c. In February. The average temp in January was +15c above what the regular average is. None of the plants rested, they threw off their leaves in mid August months before they should have, and they’re waking up now, some already have buds.
We’re fucked. We’re so royally fucked.
Thanks for sharing your experience on this. Is your community rallying behind adaptive measures for these type of events? or how are you planning to tackle this in the near future?
Honestly, in my region, we are seeing droughts last longer and lower food yields(Mexico). I worry that I won’t be on time with some measures to prepare for this upcoming shit storm.
The area is rabidly reactionary and hostile to the idea of climate change. There is a stark divide between the classes here, and the poor are incredibly uneducated, religious, and angry, and thus, easy for reactionary forces to manipulate.
Little to no change has been taken or is planned. This is made worse because of the major economic drivers in the area other then farming are natural gas fracking, coal mining, chemical manufacturing, and shale oil extraction. These industries control the local legislative bodies and they have sat on their hands.
Crop yields are lower, the summer months are near unlivable, as it is 35-42c from nearly late April to mid September. It used to be that we would get a maybe a few hot weeks (roughly 35c) in July and August at best, but it has gotten exponentially worse. This has exacerbated droughts, and farmers are forced to drain more and more groundwater. People are also forced to pump more AC in order to simply not die of heatstroke, as many of the houses have been built for decades to be highly insulated against the harsh and long winters that no longer exist.
Its gotten so bad that even a few of the far-right reactionaries have started mumbling about how “There isn’t as much snow nowadays as when I was a kid”. But I fear they will not wake up soon enough.
We are diving head-first into catastrophe.
I am sorry comrade. From what you are telling us, it feels hopeless to even try to organize something.
I still do. I’m not going to give up just because it seems hopeless!
Where is this?
You want me to dox myself? Really? Did you really just ask someone for identifiable information in an online forum?
Did you think that question through at all? Even if I told you the country, then the region, and precise area I’m talking about would be fairly easy to deduce. Last thing I need is literal identifying information linked to my account.
You want my age, profession, and eye colour too?
You did dox yourself, but it’s not a real place. Here’s all the info you gave:
- Normal winter temp = -15 to -20C
- Massive river near you that irrigates fields that feed millions
- Mountains are nearby, since river is fed by mountain snow melt
- natural gas fracking, coal mining (anthracite coal), chemical manufacturing, and shale oil extraction
- major port city 150km away
Really the big clues are it’s cold, anthracite coal, and a major port city. Cold places with anthracite are western Canada, north of Anchorage Alaska, and several places in Russia. Alaska doesn’t feed millions of people, the single anthracite coal mine in Canada isn’t near any rivers that flow to Canada’s breadbasket. So that leaves Russia. They have four major coal ports: Murmansk, Ust-Luga, Vanino, and Vostochny. I’d wager your coal is going to one of those cities that you’re 150km away from. Murmansk has no significant mountains and no coal nearby. There isn’t a river that irrigates a breadbasket either. Same situation for Ust-Luga. Vanino has some mountains, the Amur river is kind of nearby, but there isn’t a coal mining area nearby accessible by rail. Vostochny has mountains and coal mining, but no river. Maybe it’s another Russian port? No, because nothing fits the criteria because it’s all bullshit isn’t it? How can you be 150km from a cold port yet there’s a river that flows away from the sea that’s fed by melting mountain snow that flows to a major breadbasket where they’re mining quality coal? None of it makes sense. It’s not real.
If it’s not real, that would explain your over-the-top reaction to me asking where you’re describing.
This is so comically wrong that it’s hilarious. You’re so deadset on your theories you’ve overlooked several massive options to an astounding degree.
Also over the top? You think asking a person on a forum who’s received death threats and been stalked by mentally ill posters for several months is overreacting when you ask them to tell you where they live?
lol, you’re full of shit, aren’t you? None of the details you wrote fit anywhere except maybe Siberia.
They’re clearly not in the US so I doubt the FBI would be interested.
Full fedposter. There’s no way this is allowed right? Should I send my home address to the admins as well?
It’s gonna be pretty bad but that “50% of humanity” figure seems like a total ass pul. As far as I can tell, it’s based on the assumption that fossil fuels and fossil fuel derived fertilizers and stuff for modern industrial agriculture will very suddenly run out (for…reasons?) and industrialized agriculture will just completely collapse globally because it won’t develop alternative methods or anything.
I’m skimming over a bunch of articles on this site and it feels very doomsday cultish. I might keep digging later but a lot of the logic in these arguments seems to be based on absolute confidence in some questionable predictions.
Thanks for skimming through the article! Also, it would be great to have your thoughts on their adaptation suggestions such as ClimateSafe village and migrating to solid climate resilient locations.
I haven’t read what the article has to say on that, but it sounds like “you know you’re doomed, but since we can’t do anything here’s how you can escape to a slightly less fucked place if you have some money.”
Interestingly, they say the following:
If we cooperate and get started now, we can still be prepared for the critical 2025-2031 threshold. From 2025-2031, climate change consequences will go from their current linear progression into an exponential progression because of many climate change tipping points crossed and climate feedback loops triggered. From what I could rescue from their section on adaptation, they hit the nail on the head when they mention the importance of organizing.
Here is the part where it mentions the proposed solution of ClimateSafe Villages -> https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/the_four_kinds_of_universe_communities#stay Sadly, some adaptability suggestions are hidden behind membership wall. Thoughts? Love to get your insights from this and to know if this is realistic to consider.
Lol of course they have a paywall. Yes there are architectural things and so on that can increase your resilience, however their conditions for recommended climate migration are temporary (age/child status) and rich people will probably do it anyway. Their recommendations make it sound like they don’t believe what they’re saying. “We’re going to die in five years and everyone has been lying to you, but just leave society and pressure your government and you’ll be fine.” I will choose to assume they are in good faith and just unable to think beyond liberal solutions, but we Marxists actually know the real solutions. In the words of Gramsci, “what is to be done? Nothing more than to destroy the present form of civilization.” Not much can be taken from this cite beyond a renewed urgency for action, to prepare your community for climate change’s inevitable consequences, and organize for socialism.
Thank you for your thoughts on this!
Similar to things I’ve read on https://arctic-news.blogspot.com
I’m of the opinion that the fog of war makes it impossible to really know how much time we have. We definitely have less than what the IPCC is saying and they are far too conservative to trust, but assuming the absolute worst case scenario by default isn’t convincing.
I’m certain things will get worse than expected, faster than expected. I’m uncertain about near term rapid climate change predictions, though.
Yep, exactly.
You’ve gotta be careful with stuff like this because it can be so scary as to petrify you. That isn’t helpful. Stress is supposed to elicit a reaction. Ultimately, the Earth is a big ship and takes a while to change, let alone steer. A horrific storm is on the horizon of our lifetimes, but we must carry on and do what we can. Fighting for socialism is the start, as capitalist countries will fail at emissions mitigation because it’s not profitable enough. It’s going to be an ugly start to the Anthropocene.
Yes, IIRC 2030 is the deadline according to the rather conservative IPCC. It’s bad.
2023 was the deadline
the inflection point of the hockey-stick graph of winter temps was winter 2023. Warmest winter in over 300 years
