- The offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, according to German military experts, could lead to long-term failures for Ukraine.
- Short-term successes may turn into defeats , since the expansion of the front is beneficial to Russia, which has greater resources.
- It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to hold the positions it has gained due to logistical difficulties and a shortage of infantry. And Kiev’s hopes for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbas are unlikely, which makes the current operation very risky.
This counter-offensive looks like a last-ditch, long-odds gamble to try and flip the script somehow. It makes sense for Ukraine because:
- If they stay the course, they lose;
- The only other game changing strategy – turning this into a broader regional war with other countries attacking Russia – was tried and has failed; and
- They can’t negotiate with Russia due to fascists in their ranks and the veto power their NATO allies wield.
It’s throwing up a desperation shot from the other side of the floor at the end of a basketball game. Of course it didn’t work, but of course they tried it.
That’s my read as well, and also there’s a factor that they’re under constant pressure to show results to their sponsors being a proxy. With Russia advancing all over the front now, and western attention being increasingly diverted to West Asia, Ukraine needs to be seen doing something that will draw attention back to them.
The fact that Himars missile launchers were used indicates that the advance was coordinated with the USA. Normally, the target coordinates are always agreed with the Americans beforehand.
(…)
Ukraine could look like an unreliable go-getter. Berlin and Washington would reduce their support.
I didn’t expect more from the US. Yes, you are absolutely allowed to use our missle launchers to attack Russian territory, please do so! What you failed? We won’t support you anymore.
Nonsense, Zelensky will saunter into the peace negotiations and slide his Kursk Updoots across Putin’s desk, at which point the Russians will capitulate out of pure shame.
I think the entire point of the operation is so Ukraine can go SEE WE’RE WINNING IF ONLY WE HAD HELP as a way to drum up support for more enlistment.
It might work for a bit but as the article notes, this is not a good long term strategy. It’s just more delaying
SEE WE’RE WINNING IF ONLY WE HAD HELP
Yeah, it will feed into their inevitable betrayal myth after the war. Europe is gonna have a bunch of pissed off Nazis on their doorstep.
Yes, on our uh doorstep.
Honestly, terrible as it may be, I can’t think of a more deserving outcome. Not like the “betrayal” myth will be wrong this time around, albeit for different reasons- the west did everything in their power to destroy Ukraine and then some.
Hopefully we something come out of the CIA trained Ukronazi hit squads as well, but in the west against the ones responsible for all this.
It seems more plausible that these nazis would be instead targeting Russia. Here’s why:
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language barrier. The vast majority of Ukrainians already speak Russian (even if they pretend not to). Certainly more than speak German or even English. The accent might be noticeable, somewhat, but again - less so than in English
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looks and manners. At the risk of sounding like some skull-measuring twat myself, a slavic person still looks somewhat different from an Anglo. Then there’s clothes, certain mannerisms. Much as they would like to pretend being all “fancy Euro Western”, Ukrainians are still closer to Russians in this regard
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border size. Let’s be real here, Poland and Germany aren’t that large, all things considered. And the borders are shorter in length. And they’ve spend considerable effort fencing them off against “immigrant hordes”. I’m sure you remember the hysteria around the so-called “migrant crisis” around 2015. Conversely, Russian border is quite long and, as this very assault is showing, a bit more porous than the government would like. After that we circle back to top two points
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