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By the end of 2023, Russians who support a troop withdrawal from Ukraine “without achieving the war goals” were for the first time more numerous than those who oppose such a move. Ordinary Russians consider the war to be the most important negative fact in their lives and want it to end quickly.
This is the conclusion reached by independent sociologists working for Khroniky (“Chronicles”) and the Public Sociology Laboratory projects. It is backed up by those who measure public opinion for the Kremlin.
Other analysts – from Z-bloggers [pro-war bloggers] to clinical psychologists – have also noticed a lack of mass support for the war effort. They all observe that Russians are not ready to protest to end the war, but nonetheless expect Vladimir Putin to end it. As the March presidential election approaches, the Kremlin’s political strategists seem to be trying to meet this demand.
Because Putin is perceived by Russians as something like a drought - you adapt and coexist with this. The elections are the period where people tend to self-reflect on their future.
The dangers of it are not the fact that Mr. Putin won’t be elected, the problem is sabotage. I remember in 2014 I talked with my ex’s father’s friend - he was a colonel in the Russian army, artillery namely. He was telling stories about a unit that was sent to Ukraine that hadn’t been aiming properly on purpose and even had been communicating their position with their Ukrainian peers for them to do the same. I wish something similar would’ve happened in 2022.