I highly doubt that Russia will accept a fake/temporary ceasefire, let alone one where Ukraine even has a once in a blue moon’s chance of remilitarizing itself. Russia only has a real interest in an actual ceasefire/disarmament, and Ukraine and the U.S. have almost nothing to offer Russia, anyway. At least not anything nearly as substantial.
This inflection point means a metric-shit ton. Russia has every prerogative and right to continue fighting until the end, leaving Ukraine a rump state. The most that the U.S./NATO could do is offer a relief from sanctions, but I think even a blind person can tell that the relief from sanctions would be a lie or an extreme exaggeration, and Russia has no reason to trust a word out of the U.S.'s, Ukraine’s or NATO’s mouths.
Russia should probably ask for investment or a very big “loan” with very good terms from EU/US, such that if they do anything against Russia they just get to keep all the money. Perhaps Russia could even demand some industry (like refineries or chips) to be sent from the EU before actually stoping anything, although as Europe is right now I doubt they can offer anything better than backstabing to Russia.
I highly doubt that Russia will accept a fake/temporary ceasefire, let alone one where Ukraine even has a once in a blue moon’s chance of remilitarizing itself. Russia only has a real interest in an actual ceasefire/disarmament, and Ukraine and the U.S. have almost nothing to offer Russia, anyway. At least not anything nearly as substantial.
This inflection point means a metric-shit ton. Russia has every prerogative and right to continue fighting until the end, leaving Ukraine a rump state. The most that the U.S./NATO could do is offer a relief from sanctions, but I think even a blind person can tell that the relief from sanctions would be a lie or an extreme exaggeration, and Russia has no reason to trust a word out of the U.S.'s, Ukraine’s or NATO’s mouths.
Russia should probably ask for investment or a very big “loan” with very good terms from EU/US, such that if they do anything against Russia they just get to keep all the money. Perhaps Russia could even demand some industry (like refineries or chips) to be sent from the EU before actually stoping anything, although as Europe is right now I doubt they can offer anything better than backstabing to Russia.
That would be the smartest thing to do, and I’m sure Russia has something like that in mind.