The Houthi-led government in Yemen announced that it had forced an Israel-bound ship to turn back as it was sailing through the Red Sea in violation of the warnings issued on Saturday
In full seriousness, beyond posturing and making an ideological statement, how will the Houthi Movement enforce this blockade in any way? They have no navy, no modern anti-ship missiles, no naval Air Force, or any meaningful way to affect shipping in the Red Sea without getting wiped off the face of the Earth by UN anti-piracy naval and air forces in stationed in Djibouti.
They’ve already been using drones to harass Israeli affiliated ships and even seized one. They don’t have to be able to completely stop shipping, just to make it riskier and more expensive to do. That puts direct economic pressure on Israel. There’s a good article talking about this in more detail here https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14235
There are publicly available databases on ships with pretty detailed information, including their travels. For a fee there are services that provide cargo information as well.
With what? They have no naval military craft at all, zero. The most they have is drones, though they have been noted to be useful only with harassment engagements.
Also they absolutely do not have free reign over the Arabian and Red seas. That is one of the most high defended areas in the world, with anti piracy operations from UN nations constantly patrolling, destroying, and capturing pirates and smugglers. The Chinese, Americans, Russians, French, and British all have their own naval base and airfield in Djibouti for the express purpose of supporting those operations. Plus air and naval assets from dozens of UN countries.
Bab el Mandab??? You’re kidding right? I’m sure trying to capture or destroy a ship 25 meters away from the combined naval and air assets of nearly 45 countries is going to go well.
What was my view? That I can’t tell the future? I was just wary of almost looking like a Ukraine lib and making insane claims about what Ansar Allah could accomplish.
I’ve been very happy and surprised with the progress that Ansar Allah have made though! I’m a lot more optimistic about their long-term prospects now! It’s still very early though, but at least their efforts are making strides!
In full seriousness, beyond posturing and making an ideological statement, how will the Houthi Movement enforce this blockade in any way? They have no navy, no modern anti-ship missiles, no naval Air Force, or any meaningful way to affect shipping in the Red Sea without getting wiped off the face of the Earth by UN anti-piracy naval and air forces in stationed in Djibouti.
They’ve already been using drones to harass Israeli affiliated ships and even seized one. They don’t have to be able to completely stop shipping, just to make it riskier and more expensive to do. That puts direct economic pressure on Israel. There’s a good article talking about this in more detail here https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14235
But how do they differentiate shipping as to what is Israeli affiliated or not?
There are publicly available databases on ships with pretty detailed information, including their travels. For a fee there are services that provide cargo information as well.
What would stop those services from simply removing the manifests and data of Israeli related ship?
I imagine a certain amount had to be public so the west knows who’s ducking sanctions and can prevent import tax evasion, etc.
Edit: meaning it’s catch 22. Hide the manifest and not be able to dock anywhere. Or makeb it public and let your enemies know what you’re carrying.
Also, it might be the export countries who log the data to show everyone that they’re being honest?
They launched an anti ship missile a few hours ago so clearly they’ve got something
Bab el Mandab is a very narrow strait and the Houthis have the ability to strike anywhere in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea
With what? They have no naval military craft at all, zero. The most they have is drones, though they have been noted to be useful only with harassment engagements.
Also they absolutely do not have free reign over the Arabian and Red seas. That is one of the most high defended areas in the world, with anti piracy operations from UN nations constantly patrolling, destroying, and capturing pirates and smugglers. The Chinese, Americans, Russians, French, and British all have their own naval base and airfield in Djibouti for the express purpose of supporting those operations. Plus air and naval assets from dozens of UN countries.
Bab el Mandab??? You’re kidding right? I’m sure trying to capture or destroy a ship 25 meters away from the combined naval and air assets of nearly 45 countries is going to go well.
As Harun Al-Rashid once said to Niqpur: the answer is what you will see not hear.
Just sit down and watch. Not the first time the Yemenis defeated an empire
That’s just an intricate way of saying, “I have no clue, but trust me”.
We can only hope, but I am not to optimistic about their chances at all.
Still holding the same view now?
What was my view? That I can’t tell the future? I was just wary of almost looking like a Ukraine lib and making insane claims about what Ansar Allah could accomplish.
I’ve been very happy and surprised with the progress that Ansar Allah have made though! I’m a lot more optimistic about their long-term prospects now! It’s still very early though, but at least their efforts are making strides!
Cheers comrade. May you always be pleasantly surprised
I look forward to that! Each blow goes a long way!
they have helicopters, drones, small ships, antiship missiles… They will be fine.
You’re being very liberal with your definition of “helicopters and small ships”, those are small civilian craft. Not Mi24’s and corvettes.
Yet it was enough to capture Galaxy Leader
Watch this Yemeni celebrating the capture of Galaxy Leader: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0NQr46M4H8/
Note: Galaxy is pronounced Jalaxy in Arabic