In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand
theconversation.com
Trump’s tariffs may hurt, but this time China holds more cards − and could turn the pressure into a strategic advantage.

When Donald Trump pulled back on his plan to impose eye-watering tariffs on trading partners across the world, there was one key exception: China.

While the rest of the world would be given a 90-day reprieve on additional duties beyond the new 10% tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, China would feel the squeeze even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 125%.

The move, in Trump’s telling, was prompted by Beijing’s “lack of respect for global markets.” But the U.S. president may well have been smarting from Beijing’s apparent willingness to confront U.S. tariffs head on.

While many countries opted not to retaliate against Trump’s now-delayed reciprocal tariff hikes, instead favoring negotiation and dialogue, Beijing took a different tack. It responded with swift and firm countermeasures. On April 11, China dismissed Trump’s moves as a “joke” and raised its own tariff against the U.S. to 125%.

The two economies are now locked in an all-out, high-intensity trade standoff. And China is showing no signs of backing down.

And as an expert on U.S.-China relations, I wouldn’t expect China to. Unlike the first U.S.-China trade war during Trump’s initial term, when Beijing eagerly sought to negotiate with the U.S., China now holds far more leverage. Indeed, Beijing believes it can inflict at least as much damage on the U.S. as vice versa, while at the same time expanding its global position.

  • orcrist@lemm.eeEnglish
    11·
    11 days ago

    This is a pretty nice article. Some of the others that came out yesterday were failing to point out these obvious points.

    One thing that must be considered is that Trump did in fact place tariffs on the entire world, or at least most of it. And then he relaxed most of those, sure. But all of those businesses in all of those countries are wary about trying to reestablish large import export relationships with the US because the US is unpredictable. They would much rather work together with most other countries in the world, including China.

    So it’s not the US versus China, it’s the US versus everyone. And there’s no way the US can win against everyone. At best, or rather, at worst, it can drag others down for years or decades to come.