I guess I need to write a disclaimer about Perun: He’s a smug liberal commentator from Australia (the ideology, I don’t know what party he votes for in elections), though his gaming channel is pretty comfy. He has a degree of western bias, and has been invited to high profile international weapon conferences. He does attempt to cover conflicts neutrally however.
Some big points I notice:
- The US continues to make staggering investments in assets against China, which will be ready in the early 30s.
- This increase by itself is greater than the entire Russian defense budget for 2025 while in active warfar- Special Military Operations
- “Golden Dome” will provide some protetion against Chinese retaliation on the US homeland which China can threaten with Type 93B Cruise Missile Submarines.
- Golden Dome may also provide good enough insurance against ICBMs for confronting China’s relatively small stockpile of warheads.
- Large Investments in US nuclear forces, including a “classified nuclear deterrent”, and a small yield ship launched nuclear missile which congress has funded despite navy not wanting.
- 4.5 Billion investment to “accelerate” acquisition of B21 Stealth Bombers,
- Massive increase to US capabilities in naval mining, including autonomous torpedoes and underwater drones, which the PLAN has limited countermeasures prepared
- Combine that with new missiles and the US leaving its missile treaties, it seems like the US may be positioning itself to take an asymmetric stance against China, which sounds unique since it’s typically the side close to home that chooses to adopt asymmetric tactics.
True. so far, it looks like China is slightly increasing their stockpile, but increasing the sophistication of their delivery systems. I also think it could be possible that during the final year of escalation, Russia and China sign a mutual defense treaty.
I very much expect that lately with the support it’s getting during this trade war. A defense pact could even include other Asian countries like North Korea.
If the US is insane enough to start a war with a large, powerful nuclear country like China, then others can definitely expect they will eventually be up against the wall. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few others, like maybe Vietnam, join. Even if just to prevent the war because US-China war will mean billions in Asia could die and the effects would definitely go beyond Chinese borders.
A nuclear exchange between any world powers will result in the end of the world. Not only will the radiation spill over into other countries (like you pointed out), it could destroy the atmosphere.
It won’t ignite the atmosphere, like some scientists thought back in the '40s and '50s, but the atmosphere’s elemental composition could be permanently altered. We’re talking Oxygen Dioxide turns into Monoxide. Holes open in the sky, causing UV radiation from the sun to dramatically accelerate global warming. This could be set off by a small, 100 nukes each exchange between India and Pakistan. It would be guaranteed in an exchange between the US and China.
Every country on the planet would retaliate against the US to try and keep it contained to North America. A lot of them know that, which is why it wouldn’t surprise me to see more alliances spring up in opposition to NATO while NATO itself starts to disband.
Sorry for sounding like a doomer, but every single time I expect countries to do the right thing - and every single time rational minds say the rational thing - the world seems to do the opposite. Is there any actual evidence that other counties would challenge US hegemony in any scenario?
We’re already en route to destroying our planet and people aren’t doing jack about that. I’ve gotten to the point where I’m pessimistic that if the US decides it wants the world to burn in a nuclear holocaust, other countries won’t just let it happen. The way things are going, many might nod along and say it’s a great idea.
Of course, if it went that far, I just meant even if they only focused on their region you could expect casualties in the billions. It wouldn’t be something they could just ignore.
Similar to this scenario? basically instant nuclear summer?
China already has a mutual defense treaty with North Korea
Russia signed a mutual defense pact with North Korea in 2024, so perhaps Russia could be brought in already with a WWI style web of alliances.