Interestingly, during the 2000-2019 period examined in the study, while heat-related deaths rose, deaths from cold exposure fell. And they decreased by a larger amount than the increase in heat-related fatalities. Overall, researchers estimated that approximately 650,000 fewer people worldwide died from temperature exposure during the 2000-2019 period than in the 1980s and 1990s.
This is starting to reach the capitalist apologia end of climate change discussion. As long as we can prepare well enough, things won’t get that bad. Kill us all is stretch of course but we shouldn’t just downplay climate change and the disastrous conscequences it will have on the world and our society. Especially considering the people who are responsible for the majority of all pollution are not the people who will face the most direct consequences.
I don’t mind taking the study you linked at face value, but I have to ask, taking a step back, why it matters that we don’t be as alarmist over climate change. You agree that it’s man-made and still a problem, from what I understand, but I don’t see a scenario where being alarmist about it to demande real, rapid, effective change is a problem and creates future issues. Less climate change can only be good, I would rather put a stop to temp increases over the next 5 years than slow temp increases in that same timespan, you know what I’m saying?
Chinese scientists say that Chinese society prospered during warmer times.
From the prosperity of the Shang dynasty 3,600 years ago to the ruin of the Bronze Age, the cultural peak of the Tang dynasty in the seventh to 10th centuries and the subsequent ravages wrought by horsemen from the north, Chinese civilisation has reached its highest points when temperatures have been warmest and its lowest points when they have cooled.
Wang Zijin , an environmental historian at Beijing Normal University, said the relationship between temperature and success was no coincidence. When the weather cooled, agricultural output fell, wealth contracted, discontent rose and China became more vulnerable to invasion from the north.
‘In the long term, warming may not be a curse but a blessing [to China],’ he said. ‘According to what happened in the past, if the temperature continues to rise in the future we may not see the return of elephants, but it will be very possible that rice and bamboo can again grow along the Yellow River. Xinjiang , Gansu and Inner Mongolia will become much more habitable than they are today.’
This doesn’t really answer my concerns and I think looking at more continental climates with summers and winters, further away from the equator is looking at a very narrow amount of data. Countries closer to the equator will not see these benefits from a warmer climate. A few years ago, Pakistan saw a devastating weather in the summer, with scorching temps above 45C as well as very high relative humidity (far above what tropical climates usually see), effectively turning the air into an oven.
Mind you, climate change is not solely about warming temps; the biggest part of it is it makes the weather simply unpredictable; farmers can’t determine what they should plant anymore and when. Canada right now is having a cold snap, while Europe is seeing summer temperatures. We don’t know what summer will look like in the future, one year it could be unbearably dry and droughty (2022) while in other years, it can be cold and rainy (2019). This leads to droughts one year, and floods the next. Climate change is the reason there was a cold snap north of the equator in January, the polar vortex could not be contained and spilled down south due to changing wind patterns.
Certainly people living in colder climates will be happy that it gets a bit warmer. People living in scorching heat right now will not.
That first study you linked about the Medieval Warm Period was written by just one guy (wonder why he couldn’t get anyone else to co-sign his paper) and they’re basically climate change deniers, not “we shouldn’t be alarmists”-ers. This makes me wonder why exactly you would point to these fringe scientists, who run against almost the entire body of science, as trustworthy sources if you’re not a climate change denier yourself. I don’t have time to look deeply into Easterbrook right now, but I found this:
Easterbrook is a regular speaker at the Heartland Institute‘s International Conference on Climate Change. The Heartland Institute and its conference sponsors have collectively received millions of dollars in funding from the fossil fuel industry.5 (https://www.desmog.com/don-easterbrook/)
All climate change deniers are sponsored by the fossil fuel industry, if you follow the money back up enough, you’ll find they all have an agenda.
not the most well read dude, but my understanding is that as there is more energy in the atmosphere, there will be more unstable weather patterns - and will lead to crop failures.
this will most likely hit the global south and nations that are less developed (exploited nations such as the global south) harder than the developed nations. people migrating because they can’t live in the deadly heat, or not having enough food, or something about florida going underwater (iirc they won’t insure houses in florida anymore because of global warming and rising sea temperatures.)
edit i don’t think people will want to lay down and die from the inhospitable environment, they will probably move - i don’t think looking at the death toll and saying “see there are less deaths from the climate therefore climate change is not significant” is a good form of analysis, it seems like a bit of a kneejerk reaction, that needs more inspection - like quality of life, crop failures, if you can go outside without heatstroke, these things are gradually ramped up on a scale
I have some friends who live in Florida and, due to work, have to go on the news and say that although Florida is being hit by climate change that it’s still a good place to buy a home. But, privately, they all know that shit is going down and it’s a terrible place to purchase a home.
For any comrades in Florida who expect to live longer than a decade or two, don’t do it.
Yes, OP and his post are talking about the death toll and extinction, I replied in kind.
Changes in the climate might decrease yields, however CO2 concentration directly increases them. This should recover 60 to 110% (net gain for wheat) of the losses due to climate change depending on the crop from 2000-2080 according to NASA.
Kills us all? how? The world population has grown but the number of deaths from natural disasters has decreased to a fraction (graph at the bottom).
And cold weather still kills way more people than hot weather. Warming has actually decreased the temperature related deaths.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/07/19/excessive-summer-heat-can-kill-but-extreme-cold-causes-more-fatalities/?sh=135860881d88
This is starting to reach the capitalist apologia end of climate change discussion. As long as we can prepare well enough, things won’t get that bad. Kill us all is stretch of course but we shouldn’t just downplay climate change and the disastrous conscequences it will have on the world and our society. Especially considering the people who are responsible for the majority of all pollution are not the people who will face the most direct consequences.
I don’t mind taking the study you linked at face value, but I have to ask, taking a step back, why it matters that we don’t be as alarmist over climate change. You agree that it’s man-made and still a problem, from what I understand, but I don’t see a scenario where being alarmist about it to demande real, rapid, effective change is a problem and creates future issues. Less climate change can only be good, I would rather put a stop to temp increases over the next 5 years than slow temp increases in that same timespan, you know what I’m saying?
The medieval warm period was warmer than present and society flourished during that time. This period lasted from 900 to 1300 AD.
https://est.ufba.br/sites/est.ufba.br/files/kim/medievalwarmperiod.pdf
https://www.scmp.com/article/700638/china-gives-history-lesson-warming
Chinese scientists say that Chinese society prospered during warmer times.
From the prosperity of the Shang dynasty 3,600 years ago to the ruin of the Bronze Age, the cultural peak of the Tang dynasty in the seventh to 10th centuries and the subsequent ravages wrought by horsemen from the north, Chinese civilisation has reached its highest points when temperatures have been warmest and its lowest points when they have cooled.
Wang Zijin , an environmental historian at Beijing Normal University, said the relationship between temperature and success was no coincidence. When the weather cooled, agricultural output fell, wealth contracted, discontent rose and China became more vulnerable to invasion from the north.
‘In the long term, warming may not be a curse but a blessing [to China],’ he said. ‘According to what happened in the past, if the temperature continues to rise in the future we may not see the return of elephants, but it will be very possible that rice and bamboo can again grow along the Yellow River. Xinjiang , Gansu and Inner Mongolia will become much more habitable than they are today.’
This doesn’t really answer my concerns and I think looking at more continental climates with summers and winters, further away from the equator is looking at a very narrow amount of data. Countries closer to the equator will not see these benefits from a warmer climate. A few years ago, Pakistan saw a devastating weather in the summer, with scorching temps above 45C as well as very high relative humidity (far above what tropical climates usually see), effectively turning the air into an oven.
Mind you, climate change is not solely about warming temps; the biggest part of it is it makes the weather simply unpredictable; farmers can’t determine what they should plant anymore and when. Canada right now is having a cold snap, while Europe is seeing summer temperatures. We don’t know what summer will look like in the future, one year it could be unbearably dry and droughty (2022) while in other years, it can be cold and rainy (2019). This leads to droughts one year, and floods the next. Climate change is the reason there was a cold snap north of the equator in January, the polar vortex could not be contained and spilled down south due to changing wind patterns.
Certainly people living in colder climates will be happy that it gets a bit warmer. People living in scorching heat right now will not.
That first study you linked about the Medieval Warm Period was written by just one guy (wonder why he couldn’t get anyone else to co-sign his paper) and they’re basically climate change deniers, not “we shouldn’t be alarmists”-ers. This makes me wonder why exactly you would point to these fringe scientists, who run against almost the entire body of science, as trustworthy sources if you’re not a climate change denier yourself. I don’t have time to look deeply into Easterbrook right now, but I found this:
All climate change deniers are sponsored by the fossil fuel industry, if you follow the money back up enough, you’ll find they all have an agenda.
not the most well read dude, but my understanding is that as there is more energy in the atmosphere, there will be more unstable weather patterns - and will lead to crop failures.
this will most likely hit the global south and nations that are less developed (exploited nations such as the global south) harder than the developed nations. people migrating because they can’t live in the deadly heat, or not having enough food, or something about florida going underwater (iirc they won’t insure houses in florida anymore because of global warming and rising sea temperatures.)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-climate-change-impact-assessment-1.6964662#:~:text=By the 2080s%2C the report,average of about 16 days.
edit i don’t think people will want to lay down and die from the inhospitable environment, they will probably move - i don’t think looking at the death toll and saying “see there are less deaths from the climate therefore climate change is not significant” is a good form of analysis, it seems like a bit of a kneejerk reaction, that needs more inspection - like quality of life, crop failures, if you can go outside without heatstroke, these things are gradually ramped up on a scale
I have some friends who live in Florida and, due to work, have to go on the news and say that although Florida is being hit by climate change that it’s still a good place to buy a home. But, privately, they all know that shit is going down and it’s a terrible place to purchase a home.
For any comrades in Florida who expect to live longer than a decade or two, don’t do it.
Yes, OP and his post are talking about the death toll and extinction, I replied in kind.
Changes in the climate might decrease yields, however CO2 concentration directly increases them. This should recover 60 to 110% (net gain for wheat) of the losses due to climate change depending on the crop from 2000-2080 according to NASA.
https://www.nasa.gov/technology/nasa-study-rising-carbon-dioxide-levels-will-help-and-hurt-crops/
Is your perspective that climate change is happening, but we shouldn’t be alarmist over its effects? Asking in good faith comrade.
Yes