Perhaps the most controversial post I have made so far.
The Media in my country (Philippines) seems to always be talking about the South China/West Philippine Sea nowadays, especially now that water cannons have been used on a Philippine vessel. Granted, the SCS/WPS issue has existed for many years already, but now it seems like this issue has been getting escalated with time, especially with the US and its allies getting involved.
"Later Saturday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson alleged that the Philippine boat had been attempting “to send construction materials to the illegally grounded military vessel” at Second Thomas Shoal “for its repair and reinforcement.”
[…]
An [sic] statement released earlier in the day by the China Coast Guard, meanwhile, claimed that the Philippines had broken a promise to remove the grounded vessel by sending two coast guard ships and a supply ship into the waters near Second Thomas Shoal, 18 days after it last supplied the outpost." According to Japan Times
I seriously do not want my country to become another Ukraine (though it probably will, unfortunately, with the way things seem to be going) (This portion has been rendered obsolete, see Edit), but I would like to hear second opinions on this issue. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I also believe Revolutionary Defeatism can come into play here.
“During a reactionary war a revolutionary class cannot but desire the defeat of its government.”
Edit: Very insightful comments here. Much is appreciated, Comrades!
A quick summary of the responses given here, credits to comrades @infuziSporg and @Neptium: China has no current motivation to invade the Philippines (no historical land or sizable Chinese-speaking population, and no tactical advantage gained from invading), and the US and its allies are taking advantage of and escalating this situation to break ASEAN neutrality and threaten other ASEAN countries, with the Philippines merely being a pawn to further this cause.
I found YouTube links in your post. Here are links to the same videos on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
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There is no threat whatsoever of a Chinese invasion of the Philippines to mirror Ukraine. No historically Chinese land, no sizable spectrum of Chinese-speaking inhabitants, no strategically critical part of the Philippine archipelago.
Just a few remote reefs in the middle of a sea where the dominant naval powers throughout the past 700 years were the Ming, the Qing, and the Dutch. And a rising (mostly economic/industrial) superpower that has invaded 1 country in 75 years of its current state form, and 0 countries in the last 45 years.
Taiwan might be a flashpoint. But even if the NPA got the upper hand in the country, there’s no suggestion that China would intervene.
Doesn’t the NPA hate China’s guts?
It’s not an immutable, inherent Pinoy hatred, like the NPA and the West would like to present…
I think with the NPA or CPP, it’s more about the concern about Chinese “neo-colonialism”, like that of western resource-exploitation, upon the Pilipinas which sounds more reasonable of a threat though still untrue…
I made a comment in a Hexbear news megathread about this here. Although it’s mainly just referring to news articles.
The nature of the situation will not mirror that of Ukraine fortunately, however there are other risks involved.
I have now read 2 articles advocating for “security engagements” with the West for both Malaysia and Indonesia.
I suspect this entire facade is ultimately for this exact purpose. ASEAN has it’s faults but what the West wants to currently do is undermine ASEAN centrality (as much as they claim otherwise).
The escalation ultimately led by US-led monopoly capital, wants to break apart the long-standing neutrality and non-alignment that ASEAN was built on, with their current “Indo-Pacific Strategy” basically being the classic divide and conquer. They are using the Phillipines as their age-old pawn as not only an attack on China but also a threat on other major non-aligned states in the SCS, specifically Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.
Let us remind ourselves that this escalation is happening right when the ASEAN-China code of conduct negotiations has been finalising (news article in the aforementioned comment). The last thing the imperialists want is a truly free and independent Southeast Asia.
You are right that as Southeast Asians we must reject all forms of US imperialism, and this meaningless agitation does not help nor is the interest of the masses.
