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Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds
Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.
Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.
Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
Yup. By defintion any process that ends in the future is starting now. I think the question isn’t “are we on the curve now?” but rather “When are we expected to see this 3C stuff?”
1.5°C before 2030
2.0°C before 2050
3.0°C before 2100
That’s what I get if I skim a few articles. Dates are without mitigation.
So basically we only get to check one of those predictions within the next ten years.
The 2100 date for 3C is going to take 75 years to test.
When scientists predicted mass starvation in 2000 it was only 25 years out, but by the time that prediction turned out false everyone had basically forgotten the predictions. And that’s just a 25 year gap.
What I’m saying is that there’s zero skin in the game, reputation-wise, for someone making climate predictions 75 years out.
That reasoning, if not the exact words about scientists being wrong, was also used by critics to say climate warning plateaued and no action at all should be taken. Turned out the critics were wrong.
I’ve seen a lot of the classics being brought up: There is no warming, warming is good, it’s not human made, it’s too late anyway, it’s just the weather, there are no ill effects, … So I’ll follow the scientists, they got a lot more right than the critics.
How so? I will start baking bread on friday and it will be finished saturday. Hasn’t started yet tho.
Unless you consider thinking about it to be part of the process. Or the movement of the universe toward such an event. Such boundaries between cause and effect are arbitrary and exist in the mind, not in reality.