Here’s the thing about refined uranium. It’s a whole lot more portable than unrefined uranium. That’s even more true of uranium that’s been refined to the point where it could be used to make a nuclear weapon within weeks. There’s no reason to think it would be stored on site, especially after a week of Israeli bombardment.
I don’t actually think they were weeks away, but don’t you think they would be working on the other parts in parallel? It’s not like they are going to end up with an arsenal worth of weapons grade uranium then suddenly remember that there are other steps.
No, they’re not working on the other parts as far as we know, and it’s not exactly something you can do in a garage
They could get the high explosives easy enough, but you need a strong and precisely made casing to make sure you’re launching everything together to make it as angry as possible for a split second. You also need someone who understands the engineering well enough to actually do it, particularly without testing
And all that to get the bomb… A bomb they’d basically have to drive in. They don’t have icbms, the missiles they do have are often intercepted, and they don’t have a plane that could get past nearly anyone’s air defense.
And at the end of the day, they could just lie and say they have it… The fact the intelligence community doesn’t think they’re working on the rest of the bomb matters just as much as the ability to make one
Does Israel have nukes? Who knows… So many rumors have gone around about them having them that it’s just accepted as true
Do Russia and China have working nukes? What about India and Pakistan? Do the US nukes even still work? No one is sure
It also just doesn’t really matter… The only people who actually would ever need their nukes to work are the French, because their nuclear doctrine includes a warning shot
they’re not working on the other parts as far as we know
I agree, but we wouldn’t know. Iran is a modern world power that’s perfectly capable of doing things in secret that don’t fit in a garage.
We know with certainty that Iran has enriched a stockpile of 60% uranium. That’s not sufficient to say that nuclear capabilities are imminent, but it’s enough to say that they have long term goals in that direction. (Which makes perfect sense, and should not itself be provocative).
You also need someone who understands the engineering well enough to actually do it, particularly without testing
The US did it 75 years ago with no instruction book. Iran’s population is about the same as the US’s was at the time, and they have the benefit of all those years of manufacturing advancements. It’s borderline racist to assume this would be a problem for them.
They don’t have icbms
They have IRBMs, and Israel has been far from 100% successful at shooting them down. That’s with heavier payloads that have to reach the ground before detonating. Their IRBMs also include a small number of more modern systems that are nearly impossible for Israel to shoot down.
they could just lie and say they have it
Like in high school? “I swear, she used her tongue and everything!”. I’m not so sure that’s going to buy them much leverage. (Which would be the real point of having them.)
Do Russia and China have working nukes? What about India and Pakistan? Do the US nukes even still work? No one is sure.
I don’t think there is any plausible doubt about any of those but Russia. Even Russia is still certain to have some functional nukes. The only doubts are about how many. Also, Fission bombs have a really long shelf life. It’s fusion bombs that require tons of ongoing and expensive maintenance.
The US did it 75 years ago with no instruction book. Iran’s population is about the same as the US’s was at the time, and they have the benefit of all those years of manufacturing advancements. It’s borderline racist to assume this would be a problem for them.
The US did it, with most of the world’s best scientists and engineers in all related fields, in a huge research compound in the middle of the most defensible continent on an infinite budget
More importantly, the US could test at will. Iran can’t test their work without starting a war.
I could go through the other points, but I don’t think you understand the game theory elements of mutually assured destruction well enough to have that talk yet…
But you sum it up, the nukes themselves don’t matter, literally, they don’t matter at all. The threat of potential nukes is what matters, and that’s why multiple countries spend billions to maintain a nuclear triad
I’ll stress again, the US did it with no instruction book. Most of those great scientists were theoretical physiscists. There is nothing theoretical that needs doing. Many were involved in crunching numbers. Computers do that now. The US did get to test, and tested exactly once. Testing of components prior to that is not something that would be particularly detectable. The challenges today are just about the precision engineering and manufacturing.
I get that you think that countries routinely neglect maintenance of their nuclear arsenals just because using them is not necessary to MAD. It’s not that complicated, it’s just wrong. The US and Russia used to do regular inspections of each-others weapons to maintain MAD. That wasn’t all that long ago. There is no telling when such an agreement might come into play again which would greatly disadvantage countries not keeping things up. We also know for certain, because of those inspections, that the US and Russia had established proper maintenance routines. There is reason to believe that Russia may not have kept it all up, but it’s really doubtful that the US abandoned that maintenance.
If a non-nuclear power like Iran were to suddenly declare that they are now a nuclear power, some amount of proof would be required before it was taken seriously. To think otherwise isn’t ignorant, it’s insane. I have to wonder why you think they haven’t tried your clever hack already.
Do you think the physics of nukes is widely shared, accurately? That no one spread a few incorrect formulas to reduce proliferation? If you can’t test along the way, you need to know exactly how it works.
Without help or the ability to experiment, they’re doing it on hard mode. These are worse conditions with less funding… The only advantage they have is knowing for sure it’s possible
And as far as MAD… Do you think Israel has ever been inspected? Of course not. Because the game has changed
Optics are more important than reality. Right now, the intelligence community doesn’t think they’re close to a bomb. If that opinion were reversed, that’s just as good as having a bomb
They had nuclear power plants since the 1960’s. As is their right. That’s not something you have to ‘admit’
The US attacking a nuclear facility though is a grave warcrime.
Maybe that’s something you may want to ‘admit’.
BCS the IAEA officially said it and also it’s none of your fucking business?
But no, commit yet another warcrime by bombing a NUCLEAR FACILITY.
Fucking arrogant nutbags.
They were confirmed nuclear enrichment sites though. Iran openly admits that’s what those sites were. Definitely not “random shit.”
Here’s the thing about refined uranium. It’s a whole lot more portable than unrefined uranium. That’s even more true of uranium that’s been refined to the point where it could be used to make a nuclear weapon within weeks. There’s no reason to think it would be stored on site, especially after a week of Israeli bombardment.
Make a nuclear weapon within weeks? What?
Yeah, enrichment is the hardest part… That doesn’t mean the rest is easy
I don’t actually think they were weeks away, but don’t you think they would be working on the other parts in parallel? It’s not like they are going to end up with an arsenal worth of weapons grade uranium then suddenly remember that there are other steps.
No, they’re not working on the other parts as far as we know, and it’s not exactly something you can do in a garage
They could get the high explosives easy enough, but you need a strong and precisely made casing to make sure you’re launching everything together to make it as angry as possible for a split second. You also need someone who understands the engineering well enough to actually do it, particularly without testing
And all that to get the bomb… A bomb they’d basically have to drive in. They don’t have icbms, the missiles they do have are often intercepted, and they don’t have a plane that could get past nearly anyone’s air defense.
And at the end of the day, they could just lie and say they have it… The fact the intelligence community doesn’t think they’re working on the rest of the bomb matters just as much as the ability to make one
Does Israel have nukes? Who knows… So many rumors have gone around about them having them that it’s just accepted as true
Do Russia and China have working nukes? What about India and Pakistan? Do the US nukes even still work? No one is sure
It also just doesn’t really matter… The only people who actually would ever need their nukes to work are the French, because their nuclear doctrine includes a warning shot
I agree, but we wouldn’t know. Iran is a modern world power that’s perfectly capable of doing things in secret that don’t fit in a garage.
We know with certainty that Iran has enriched a stockpile of 60% uranium. That’s not sufficient to say that nuclear capabilities are imminent, but it’s enough to say that they have long term goals in that direction. (Which makes perfect sense, and should not itself be provocative).
The US did it 75 years ago with no instruction book. Iran’s population is about the same as the US’s was at the time, and they have the benefit of all those years of manufacturing advancements. It’s borderline racist to assume this would be a problem for them.
They have IRBMs, and Israel has been far from 100% successful at shooting them down. That’s with heavier payloads that have to reach the ground before detonating. Their IRBMs also include a small number of more modern systems that are nearly impossible for Israel to shoot down.
Like in high school? “I swear, she used her tongue and everything!”. I’m not so sure that’s going to buy them much leverage. (Which would be the real point of having them.)
I don’t think there is any plausible doubt about any of those but Russia. Even Russia is still certain to have some functional nukes. The only doubts are about how many. Also, Fission bombs have a really long shelf life. It’s fusion bombs that require tons of ongoing and expensive maintenance.
The US did it, with most of the world’s best scientists and engineers in all related fields, in a huge research compound in the middle of the most defensible continent on an infinite budget
More importantly, the US could test at will. Iran can’t test their work without starting a war.
I could go through the other points, but I don’t think you understand the game theory elements of mutually assured destruction well enough to have that talk yet…
But you sum it up, the nukes themselves don’t matter, literally, they don’t matter at all. The threat of potential nukes is what matters, and that’s why multiple countries spend billions to maintain a nuclear triad
I’ll stress again, the US did it with no instruction book. Most of those great scientists were theoretical physiscists. There is nothing theoretical that needs doing. Many were involved in crunching numbers. Computers do that now. The US did get to test, and tested exactly once. Testing of components prior to that is not something that would be particularly detectable. The challenges today are just about the precision engineering and manufacturing.
I get that you think that countries routinely neglect maintenance of their nuclear arsenals just because using them is not necessary to MAD. It’s not that complicated, it’s just wrong. The US and Russia used to do regular inspections of each-others weapons to maintain MAD. That wasn’t all that long ago. There is no telling when such an agreement might come into play again which would greatly disadvantage countries not keeping things up. We also know for certain, because of those inspections, that the US and Russia had established proper maintenance routines. There is reason to believe that Russia may not have kept it all up, but it’s really doubtful that the US abandoned that maintenance.
If a non-nuclear power like Iran were to suddenly declare that they are now a nuclear power, some amount of proof would be required before it was taken seriously. To think otherwise isn’t ignorant, it’s insane. I have to wonder why you think they haven’t tried your clever hack already.
I’m sure you’re not an engineer now lol
Do you think the physics of nukes is widely shared, accurately? That no one spread a few incorrect formulas to reduce proliferation? If you can’t test along the way, you need to know exactly how it works.
Without help or the ability to experiment, they’re doing it on hard mode. These are worse conditions with less funding… The only advantage they have is knowing for sure it’s possible
And as far as MAD… Do you think Israel has ever been inspected? Of course not. Because the game has changed
Optics are more important than reality. Right now, the intelligence community doesn’t think they’re close to a bomb. If that opinion were reversed, that’s just as good as having a bomb
They had nuclear power plants since the 1960’s. As is their right. That’s not something you have to ‘admit’ The US attacking a nuclear facility though is a grave warcrime.
Maybe that’s something you may want to ‘admit’.
And we’d take their word for it… Why exactly?
BCS the IAEA officially said it and also it’s none of your fucking business?
But no, commit yet another warcrime by bombing a NUCLEAR FACILITY.
Fucking arrogant nutbags.