My view is that preventing economic integration of Europe with Russia and China was one of the main motivations on the part of the US. However, I also think that they initially believed that Russian economy would collapse in a few months once they cut Russia out of the western financial system. This idea was premised on using nominal GDP to evaluate economies, which has become part of mainstream dogma in the west. Russia has always been dismissed as a gas station with nukes, and its economy was supposed to be comparable to that of Italy. This is basically why the Europeans got onboard with the project. The promise was that Russian economy collapses under sanctions, and then they’d get the repeat of the 90s where western companies would get to plunder Russia.
Obviously things haven’t worked out that way, but I do think that US likely sees this as the least worst option. They’re going to lose the war, but they got to plunder what’s left of the European industry, and destroyed European economy for decades to come. This is basically US doing a scorched earth strategy as they retreat from the European theatre.
There are two factors that can vaguely suggest that that they should have at least expected the sanctions to not topple Russia. If they didn’t then they are stupid. China and India.
India would collapse without Russian oil. Ever since the war began India has become a shady middleman that smuggles Russian fuel to Europe to bypass sanctions. Not only this, but it seems like the US is okay with this for some reason. They haven’t pressured the BJP regime at all about this.
And with China’s and Russia’s technological and industrial bases combined there is not much else that is left to be desired. West’s innovation since the war began has been just LLMs which they can live without.
There is no reason US should have expected China or India to isolate Russia over this war. That’s why I’m a bit confused.
It seems like they fully expected China and India to fall in line fearing secondary sanctions, and yeah once that didn’t happen it was gg well played. Also, completely agree that anybody with a functioning brain could’ve predicted this outcome.
I suspect that what we’re seeing is the effect of creating really good propaganda and echo chambers. The people in charge in the west started drinking their own kool aid at some point.
No, i think the original intention was to strangle Russia, because that would not only put China into terrible position, but also automatically swing EU towards dependency on USA, deprive various global south countries alternative and finally also put an end to India trying to exert their sovereignity. Not to mention all the plunder for their donors. And most importantly, continuation of the US hegemony in the forseeable future.
But that failed so the plan B and consolation prize is just Europe, but it’s done in forceful and heavy handed manner.
So unlike many people saying “but Europe is a great prize” i think the plan was colossal failure compared to planned original goal. Remember, USA does plan big, on world hegemonic scale, this is exactly what they successfully did prior WW2, and once again in the Cold War.
Do you think the ghouls in the US intended beforehand for the sanctions on Russia to strangle Europe rather than Russia?
I don’t credit them with that much foresight or strategic ability.
My view is that preventing economic integration of Europe with Russia and China was one of the main motivations on the part of the US. However, I also think that they initially believed that Russian economy would collapse in a few months once they cut Russia out of the western financial system. This idea was premised on using nominal GDP to evaluate economies, which has become part of mainstream dogma in the west. Russia has always been dismissed as a gas station with nukes, and its economy was supposed to be comparable to that of Italy. This is basically why the Europeans got onboard with the project. The promise was that Russian economy collapses under sanctions, and then they’d get the repeat of the 90s where western companies would get to plunder Russia.
Obviously things haven’t worked out that way, but I do think that US likely sees this as the least worst option. They’re going to lose the war, but they got to plunder what’s left of the European industry, and destroyed European economy for decades to come. This is basically US doing a scorched earth strategy as they retreat from the European theatre.
There are two factors that can vaguely suggest that that they should have at least expected the sanctions to not topple Russia. If they didn’t then they are stupid. China and India.
India would collapse without Russian oil. Ever since the war began India has become a shady middleman that smuggles Russian fuel to Europe to bypass sanctions. Not only this, but it seems like the US is okay with this for some reason. They haven’t pressured the BJP regime at all about this.
And with China’s and Russia’s technological and industrial bases combined there is not much else that is left to be desired. West’s innovation since the war began has been just LLMs which they can live without.
There is no reason US should have expected China or India to isolate Russia over this war. That’s why I’m a bit confused.
It seems like they fully expected China and India to fall in line fearing secondary sanctions, and yeah once that didn’t happen it was gg well played. Also, completely agree that anybody with a functioning brain could’ve predicted this outcome.
I suspect that what we’re seeing is the effect of creating really good propaganda and echo chambers. The people in charge in the west started drinking their own kool aid at some point.
Incidentally, China’s already leading in LLMs :) https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/china-leads-world-adoption-generative-ai-survey-shows-2024-07-09/
No, i think the original intention was to strangle Russia, because that would not only put China into terrible position, but also automatically swing EU towards dependency on USA, deprive various global south countries alternative and finally also put an end to India trying to exert their sovereignity. Not to mention all the plunder for their donors. And most importantly, continuation of the US hegemony in the forseeable future.
But that failed so the plan B and consolation prize is just Europe, but it’s done in forceful and heavy handed manner.
So unlike many people saying “but Europe is a great prize” i think the plan was colossal failure compared to planned original goal. Remember, USA does plan big, on world hegemonic scale, this is exactly what they successfully did prior WW2, and once again in the Cold War.