• usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
    141·
    3 months ago

    That’s assuming the polling error goes the same way. That’s not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling

    Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      54·
      3 months ago

      You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.

      You dont get to just “wish” it were some other way and base expectations around that.

      • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
        61·
        3 months ago

        Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

        Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
          24·
          3 months ago

          My point is that you cannot be certain about it

          Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.

          If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.

          • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
            41·
            3 months ago

            That’s not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can’t be sure?

            • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
              33·
              3 months ago

              declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

              You just lack reading comprehension.

              The quote is:

              best most recent structural bias measurement

              The previous comments said, “the best most recent estimate of structural bias”, which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I’ve seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

              I get it. You’ve got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

              • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mlOP
                42·
                3 months ago

                My response was more so to the “you don’t get to ‘wish’” part. It could go the same way, it could not. It’s not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn’t helpful

                Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

                https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

                No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to