cross-posted from: https://lemmy.blahaj.zone/post/17869503
I know I’m going against the grain here, I’m obviously no Harris lover, but also I’d prefer to be allowed to continue existing. If that’s controversial in leftist spaces then maybe I don’t want to spend any more time in leftist spaces.
Trans tankies be like:
They sure have a lot more faith in the Democrats’ moral compass than we do.
Do you have more faith in Trump’s?
Trump isn’t going to be president next year, I’m more worried about the Democrats.
Did trump drop out of the race? Because from what I gather it’s still a very close race that can end up being decided by the supreme court.
The fix has been in since Biden dropped out, all that remains is to see what sort of stochastic terrorism Trump’s supporters get up to once reality starts settling in.
Okay, with that confidence I suggest you put a couple of grand against Harris winning.
That doesn’t make any sense.
“Put money against someone winning.” = “Betting that someone will win.”
Or what didn’t make sense?
The part where you said that betting against Harris is the same thing as betting on Harris…
The US voting system is undemocratic and a huge percentage of the population seems to be out of their mind. Trump winning is still a very real danger.
The only part of that you’re wrong about is the last bit. Trump winning isn’t the danger, the threat is his tantrum after he loses.
Clearly, if you put your money where your mouth is, there’s a lot of money to be made:
Maybe stop watching so much MSN
You would have made a pretty penny if you bet on Trump in 2016
Electoral betting odds more closely reflect the opinions of capital than voters, precisely because of who has more disposable money to put where their mouth is. In 2016, that was the liberal status quo because it meant business as usual. In 2024, after having a taste of blood in the water from tax cuts and deregulation in Trump’s first term, they want more.
My statistics professor did, which is what got me interested in the space. In general, he said, the betting odds are more reflective of reality because the further they are from the truth, the more money to be made by people who can detect that.
So even if the odds are off, the chances of them being off by a significant amount are low.
(And yes, it was unlikely for Trump to win 2016. The fact he did win doesn’t change that fact)
It’s too much of a 2020 flashback, I hope the polling is way off.