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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: October 9th, 2023

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  • His entire methodology is contingent on history repeating itself.

    Any prediction is based on history. Even pollsters believe the history of polling results before an election can predict how people will actually vote on election day.

    What people usually don’t realize about the “keys” is that they aren’t advocating some political position, like “incumbency is good”. It is more like a retrospective clinical study, where you look at a bunch of factors (smoking, exercise, TV watching, eye color) and see which ones best predict some outcome of interest (lifespan). If smoking has an association with lifespan and eye color doesn’t, then smoking is a predictor and eye color isn’t.

    It doesn’t matter if people don’t understand why smoking would affect lifespan. It doesn’t matter if people think eye color should be more predictive than smoking. It doesn’t matter if people think cigarettes today are not the same as they used to be, so smoking should no longer be a predictor for lifespan. Predictors are predictors until they actually fail to predict.





  • arbitrary interpretation

    They aren’t as arbitrary as they seem, it’s just that the media don’t go into the full detail.

    For example, key 2 is actually “The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes”, which is clearly true

    Furthermore, the entire point of this method is that it ignores opinion polls. So it makes no difference whether the public actually wanted a primary contest or not. Likewise, it doesn’t matter whether scandals have “lost meaning”.




  • all media

    Not true. The fairness doctrine only applied to broadcast media on public airwaves. It has never applied to newspapers (the NYT endorsed Eisenhower in 1952) or cable news.

    And it was repealed in 1987, under Reagan. However, broadcast media (not newspapers or cable news) are still subject to the equal time rule.

    The reason that these rules only affect broadcast media is that there is a limited number of broadcast licenses, but no limit to the number of newspapers or cable channels. It has nothing to do with Nazis, in fact the equal time rule originated in 1927.






  • The circular part is where you wonder why nobody is doing anything to help Palestinians.

    I’ll give you a hint: after the election, pollsters will ask people who voted what the most important issues are to them. Since people like you aren’t voting, very few voters will answer “helping Palestinians”. Politicians will look at those polls and simply maintain the status quo regarding Palestine, since voters have little appetite for change. And the status quo is sending arms to Israel.

    Again and again, the left shoots itself in the foot.