wrong place for this. joint probabilities joke was kinda fire though
1.
Before 2030, do you consider it more likely than not that current AI techniques will scale to human level in at least 25% of the domains that humans can do, to average human level.
There is no set of domains over which we can quantify to make statements like this. “at least 25% of the domains that humans can do” is meaningless unless you willfully adopt a painfully modernist view that we really can talk about human ability in such stunningly universalist terms, one that inherits a lot of racist, ableist, eugenicist, white supremacist, … history. Unfortunately, understanding this does not come down to sitting down and trying to reason about intelligence from techbro first principles. Good luck escaping though.
Rest of the questions are deeply uninteresting and only become minimally interesting once you’re already lost in the AI religion.
wrong place for this. joint probabilities joke was kinda fire though
1.
There is no set of domains over which we can quantify to make statements like this. “at least 25% of the domains that humans can do” is meaningless unless you willfully adopt a painfully modernist view that we really can talk about human ability in such stunningly universalist terms, one that inherits a lot of racist, ableist, eugenicist, white supremacist, … history. Unfortunately, understanding this does not come down to sitting down and trying to reason about intelligence from techbro first principles. Good luck escaping though.
Rest of the questions are deeply uninteresting and only become minimally interesting once you’re already lost in the AI religion.