I’ll be honest, Linkerbaan — and you may know this from our previous discussions — I can even see the high-stakes situation with Israel and not like it but understand why in the grand scheme of politics (AIPAC, Jewish American voters, and the risk of withholding arms and then a false-flag terrorist attack occurs on Israeli soil, only to cause an immediate end of Biden’s campaign and an installation of someone FAR more pro-genocide)… But nevertheless, your point raises something I think we can both agree on: Ditching Biden also helps, as Mehdi Hasan has pointed out, ditch the baggage of Israeli genocide complicity.

Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.

There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.

Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:

Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”

Post-Debate: “64% of Independents want Biden replaced on the ballot”; that’s more than they want Trump replaced on the ballot by 1%, by the way.

Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”

Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”

Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”

Post-Debate Focus Group 2/Reuters: “‘I am absolutely voting for Donald Trump’: Undecided voters react to Biden’s debate performance”

Post-Debate USAToday/Suffolk Poll: “Republican Donald Trump has edged ahead of Democrat Joe Biden, 41% to 38%, in the aftermath of the candidates’ rancorous debate last week”

Nate Silver of 538’s Model: “Biden’s win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night.”

Let’s face reality:

• Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
• Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
• Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
• Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.

To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”

So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:

We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.

• Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
• Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
• There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.

If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.

Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.

Remake this meme for tankies where instead of vote, it just says, “Tankies say ‘get gunz!’”

With all due respect if we’re speaking in terms of certainty, I am 100% certain that Biden will give Trump the election—and I guarantee I have more evidence to support that statement than anyone does to the opposite conclusion. Staying this course is a disaster in slow-motion. The Titanic already hit the iceberg and now we’re just sinking for 4 months straight. We either jump ship now, or we are going to lose, or we start gearing up for 2028 now.

For once, I just want Democrats to take a fucking bold brazen move. Seriously. This is why Democrats never control the narrative because they’re always too gun-shy to do the right thing and stand by their own beliefs.

• Ditch the 81-year-old clearly suffering cognitive decline; run what would be a viral media frenzy that is an open convention and an American Idol contest for the American people.

• Or fuck it: AOC will be old enough to be President this year. Even if she can’t get the nomination, she should start campaigning literally today until 2028, just like Trump does.

Edit: Sorry, going to move this to the top of the thread because it’s too important:

Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.

There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.

Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:

Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”

Post-Debate: “64% of Independents want Biden replaced on the ballot”; that’s more than they want Trump replaced on the ballot by 1%, by the way.

Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”

Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”

Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”

Post-Debate Focus Group 2/Reuters: “‘I am absolutely voting for Donald Trump’: Undecided voters react to Biden’s debate performance”

Post-Debate USAToday/Suffolk Poll: “Republican Donald Trump has edged ahead of Democrat Joe Biden, 41% to 38%, in the aftermath of the candidates’ rancorous debate last week”

Nate Silver of 538’s Model: “Biden’s win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night.”

Let’s face reality:

• Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
• Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
• Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
• Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.

To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”

So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:

We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.

• Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
• Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
• There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.

If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.

Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.

I’ll never forget moving out west on a cross-country road trip with my mom and little sister. We vetted most of our hotels pretty well but had to make an unplanned stop at a red roof inn on Oklahoma. What a complete shithole. Dingy, flickering half-lit hallways. Sketchiest people. I slept with a knife under my pillow.

You know the state ballot argument is a risk I hadn’t considered. I honestly don’t know enough to say how they could impact but it’s worth further consideration.

I think there would be a media frenzy if you saw a headline like, “BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT BIDEN RESIGNS; ENDORSES GRETCHEN WHITMER.” After which there would be viral social media and millions googling, “who is Whitmer?” Hopefully the conclusion they have is, “well she’s a fresh face and she’s younger than the other guy.”

Anyone: (1) young, and (2) not old.

But just curious: are you sincerely asking this as if you haven’t heard the half dozen names floated, some of whom did better in battleground states than Biden?

Yeah I’m chuckling at the anonymous vote manipulation.

You know these cowards have no substantive argument.

On Lemmy since October. Only comment. Zero submissions.

Is there a c/ChoosyBeggars?

Fair points but I don’t personally put much weight in the perception of what Republicans might say about a coronation for a couple reasons:

• All of us on the Democratic side just want Trump to lose.
• Anyone who voted for Joe Biden will vote for anyone under the Democratic ticket.
• Especially when Joe Biden, himself, endorses that candidate. It’s little different than letting Joe pick his own Vice President. It’s kind of like a transitive extension of one’s vote.

and it’s hard to know which bad option is the worst of the options.

And this is the thing that I’m 100% convinced of by this point, personally. I see not just little hope, but no hope for Biden winning at this stage. As I tried my best to convey, Biden is performing significantly worse compared to 2020 and even Hillary’s failed run. There’s kind of a diminishing-returns argument to be made at this point that the vast electorate knows both Trump and Biden through & through. There’s nothing new they’re going to realize that they don’t already know. So to move poll numbers now is next to impossible; and with that, the polls are going in the wrong direction for Biden, and the full effect of the debate hasn’t even set in.

So what does one do? Well between riding out the inevitable crash, I think we take the chance with another way. But we won’t do that by the looks of it. And I will bet large sums of money that Biden loses, unfortunately.

It’s fine. We have an 81-year-old who jumps from his strongest issue — abortion — to his weakest issue — immigration mid-sentence who will save us from this downward spiral into fascism.

I’m told <checks notes> that this is the best we’ve got.

First off, Garland was a Supreme Court Justice nominee By Obama and who the Republicans would block, right? I’m not remotely buying this olive-branch attempt to downplay this. I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t survive scrutiny from the left if he was a partisan hack for both being a SCOTUS nominee, as well as an AG under Biden. If Garland was that much of a conservative partisan hack, McConnell wouldn’t have blocked the appointment. So far I think he’s doing a fucking fantastic job and the only people I see complaining are people who are clearly not legal experts and think everything is so cut-and-dry and easy with a “if I was in there, it would’ve been done overnight!” mentality.

Second, I know exactly which WaPo article you’re discussing and it did not take 2.5 years for him to begin investigating. Nor does that article cover the OTHER investigations apart from January 6th, such as the classified documents case.

Forget the obvious fucking fact that goes completely unmentioned: Garland was busy building the case from the ground-up while handling — gee I don’t know — the largest criminal investigation in the history of the FBI.. So naturally, it would make sense if you wanted to make sure you eliminated ANY hole for accusation of bias to first build your case from the ground-up, charge the actual insurrectionists first, then let smaller fish turn on bigger fish which can then be used as evidence for the mega case that is taking down a former President.

Edit: the silence of the anonymous down-votes without substantive rebuttal couldn’t be more deafening.

Whoa, whoa, whoa… Who said anything about third-party?

The nominee isn’t official until the convention, which means we still have time. And I ask: what would happen between then and November should Biden suffer a fatal medical emergency or his condition get so worse it’s impossible to hide? Democrats would, of course, find a way to put someone else on the ticket.

So let’s not pretend it’s impossible or that the ship has sailed, for it has not.

If we actually grow a fucking backbone and realize that Biden:

• Is performing WORSE in EVERY WAY compared to his 2020 run (where he eeked by with 40,000 votes)
• Is performing WORSE than Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016.
• 70% of the electorate BEFORE the catastrophic debate seen by 50 million people thought Biden was too old
• 64% of independents POST-debate say they want Biden replaced on the ballot.

… And let’s acknowledge that we need to take a chance at an open convention or face a guaranteed loss.

The people who need to read this are either the psychopaths who implemented the strategy to get these conservative hacks on the court, or the grossly gullible base too illiterate to find let alone comprehend this dissent.

Golly, if only Barr wasn’t overseeing that aforementioned Department during that period of time.

I agree. We are going to lose in November if we remain on this shuffling horse.

I will vote for Biden, but we will lose because we’re not the people who needed to be convinced by that debate performance.

Breaking: Merrick Garland magically throws together a team and analyzes thousands of documents and gets search warrants for former presidents and analyzes all information, gets grand juries and indicts magically really quickly!

(… Later)

Breaking: Merrick Garland’s indictments thrown out on technicality because of rushing things; widespread animosity that this is a political witch-hunt thrown together.

We fucked up, but not because of this.

lol my guy, you are reaching for some serious straws. If you’re not going off of this data, what ARE you going off, exactly…? Vibes? This is more denial than I can handle.

He was not telling Biden to drop out the day before the debate. He was telling Biden to drop out the day after,

Well no fucking shit! That’s called adapting to new information. Any good scientist or analyst does it. When an unprecedented event like THAT debate performance occurs, then yes, that means you must go back and readjust the model. Models only work if they actually factor in the latest information — you get this, right? Have you SEEN the post-debate polling coming out? It’s TERRIBLE:

Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”

Post-Debate: “64% of Independents want Biden replaced on the ballot”; that’s more than they want Trump replaced on the ballot by 1%, by the way.

Post-Debate: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”

Trump tanked two debates against Hillary and still squeaked through on election day. Nobody is going to be thinking about this debate by the time the Olympics are over.

You live in this magical fairy-tale world where Trump is held to the same standard as Biden when he clearly is not. If voters were as informed as you and me then we wouldn’t have either of these fucking candidates. Neither of those poor debates come remotely close to what we saw yesterday from the person espousing to be the fighter to take on Donald Trump. It doesn’t change the reality reflected in every single piece of data we have in battleground states. Now you can choose to bury your head in the sand and go off vibes if you want, but good luck with that.