I don’t believe in the 25 infringements to the ceasefire(, but i don’t know his arguments, only that the OSCE recorded more attacks from the ukrainian side in their ~millions of infringements recorded), and there’s the risk, from the russian side, of giving them more time to build an army, so here’s an idea among others :
Ukraine is demilitarized, and promise not to join NATO(, promises are cheap). But NATO troops, and/or from the UN, will be tasked with protecting the border.
However, for Russia to accept losing Ukraine, referendums could/should be held in the border lands to ask tgeir population if they prefer to rejoin their old russian side or the new western side. And these referendums should be held again every ~5-10 years after that, with a total acceptance of russian medias in them. There would then be debates between pro&anti russian, and about the modalities(, e.g. the forms of autonomy, outside//inside the Russian federation).
And whatever the results of these referendums ends up being, the anti-russian part of Ukraine should be left with an access to the sea(, unlike Bolivia).
They don’t want to be forced to choose a side against their will, but also want to force others like Odessa to follow Lviv, even in the case of their inhabitants refusing the same NATO that bombed Serbia, Lybia, etc. Ukrainians are more russians than europeans, there’s the possibility of creating something else.
There’s also the expectations of Transnistria, which could become a part of Russia.
I highly doubt that Russia will accept a fake/temporary ceasefire, let alone one where Ukraine even has a once in a blue moon’s chance of remilitarizing itself. Russia only has a real interest in an actual ceasefire/disarmament, and Ukraine and the U.S. have almost nothing to offer Russia, anyway. At least not anything nearly as substantial.
This inflection point means a metric-shit ton. Russia has every prerogative and right to continue fighting until the end, leaving Ukraine a rump state. The most that the U.S./NATO could do is offer a relief from sanctions, but I think even a blind person can tell that the relief from sanctions would be a lie or an extreme exaggeration, and Russia has no reason to trust a word out of the U.S.'s, Ukraine’s or NATO’s mouths.
Russia should probably ask for investment or a very big “loan” with very good terms from EU/US, such that if they do anything against Russia they just get to keep all the money. Perhaps Russia could even demand some industry (like refineries or chips) to be sent from the EU before actually stoping anything, although as Europe is right now I doubt they can offer anything better than backstabing to Russia.
Or, better yet, watch the full video instead : https://www.youtube.com/live/hzkCsIv365c
I don’t believe in the 25 infringements to the ceasefire(, but i don’t know his arguments, only that the OSCE recorded more attacks from the ukrainian side in their ~millions of infringements recorded), and there’s the risk, from the russian side, of giving them more time to build an army, so here’s an idea among others :
Ukraine is demilitarized, and promise not to join NATO(, promises are cheap). But NATO troops, and/or from the UN, will be tasked with protecting the border.
However, for Russia to accept losing Ukraine, referendums could/should be held in the border lands to ask tgeir population if they prefer to rejoin their old russian side or the new western side. And these referendums should be held again every ~5-10 years after that, with a total acceptance of russian medias in them. There would then be debates between pro&anti russian, and about the modalities(, e.g. the forms of autonomy, outside//inside the Russian federation).
And whatever the results of these referendums ends up being, the anti-russian part of Ukraine should be left with an access to the sea(, unlike Bolivia).
They don’t want to be forced to choose a side against their will, but also want to force others like Odessa to follow Lviv, even in the case of their inhabitants refusing the same NATO that bombed Serbia, Lybia, etc. Ukrainians are more russians than europeans, there’s the possibility of creating something else.
There’s also the expectations of Transnistria, which could become a part of Russia.
It’s just some thoughts.
I highly doubt that Russia will accept a fake/temporary ceasefire, let alone one where Ukraine even has a once in a blue moon’s chance of remilitarizing itself. Russia only has a real interest in an actual ceasefire/disarmament, and Ukraine and the U.S. have almost nothing to offer Russia, anyway. At least not anything nearly as substantial.
This inflection point means a metric-shit ton. Russia has every prerogative and right to continue fighting until the end, leaving Ukraine a rump state. The most that the U.S./NATO could do is offer a relief from sanctions, but I think even a blind person can tell that the relief from sanctions would be a lie or an extreme exaggeration, and Russia has no reason to trust a word out of the U.S.'s, Ukraine’s or NATO’s mouths.
Russia should probably ask for investment or a very big “loan” with very good terms from EU/US, such that if they do anything against Russia they just get to keep all the money. Perhaps Russia could even demand some industry (like refineries or chips) to be sent from the EU before actually stoping anything, although as Europe is right now I doubt they can offer anything better than backstabing to Russia.
That would be the smartest thing to do, and I’m sure Russia has something like that in mind.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: