Shares in Tokyo Electron fell 7.5%, leading a drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Fellow chip gear providers including Lasertec Corp. and Screen Holdings Co. also ranked among the market’s biggest decliners. ASML’s stock was similarly down 9.9% in Amsterdam, even as the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter bookings. Shares of Applied Materials Inc., Lam Research Corp. and KLA Corp. — the three biggest American makers of chip equipment — also tumbled on Wednesday. Applied Materials, the largest of the three, fell as much as 7.8% in its worst intraday decline since November.
I don’t think the drop in share prices matter that much. The dips from previous announcements of sanctions went away quickly, because the chip industry overall is in a very strong position globally.
The administration is in a tenuous position. US companies feel that restrictions on exports to China have unfairly punished them and are pushing for changes. Allies, meanwhile, see little reason to alter their policies when the US presidential election is just a few months away.
This is really the crux of the issue, and not so much geopolitics. Some of the US companies that pushed for the sanctions (like Micron tech) have themselves suffered from Chinese retaliation (Micron tech “mysteriously” failed its cybersecurity review in China, and China has clamped down on germanium exports).
The American chip-equipment makers — Applied Materials, Lam and KLA — have been pressing their case in a series of recent meetings with US officials, according to people familiar with the situation. They have argued that current trade policies are backfiring, damaging American semiconductor companies while failing to halt Chinese progress as much as the US government hoped. But the companies don’t want the administration to use FDPR. They fear it will provoke Japan and the Netherlands to become defiant and stop cooperating.
Amazing to see western corporate interests just openly dictating government policy. The rest of the article just plainly lays out which company is telling its government to do what. We’ve dropped even the pretenses.
I don’t think their pleas will work. They’re not important or big enough. NVIDIA went begging for the US to let them continue to profit from China and they’re way more important and they said no and the head of sanctions basically directly threatened them saying she’d adjust sanctions daily to prevent them getting around them with new products if necessary. Though financial capital has had and still has some interests in China, industrial capital in the west increasingly doesn’t benefit from continued trade and in fact as much of it is defense adjacent, benefits from fear-mongering, sanctions, and increasing tensions.
I have little doubt the US will continue to press the sanctions button harder and harder on China. They will hurt their own industries but help them briefly with short-term protectionism benefits. In the end though it will force China to develop their own which will hurt the west but that’s deferred pain and they hope to have a better plan or position by then.
Yeah I guess. There’s still something about seeing the fuckery with your own eyes. It’s one thing reading about banana dictatorships in the history books, and another to live through a tech dictatorship right now.
I’m not sure I would call him vindicated. He definitely bought into some of the free market economics of the 1980s which could have ended really badly. Reform and opening up only really succeeded because the Chinese government was willing to slow the pace of reform when Deng was pushing them to move faster. He also had China invade Vietnam which was a huge L.
True, the Sino Vietnamese war was an L, as expected of post Sino Soviet split Chinese foreign policy. And yeah I had the same concerns over liberalizing too fast, esp in the Jiang and Hu era, but it seems like that’s been reigned in too. Trust the process I guess.
I might be biased, but didn’t Vietnam repeatedly raid the border with USSR support before China invaded, and withdrew within a few days after taking several cities?
That is correct, there were border raids which prompted the invasion, but the Sino Soviet split is what caused the worsening relations which led to that. Basically, the invasion was cringe, even if there was some justification for it, but what was more cringe was the repudiation of Stalin and the revisionism in the USSR that followed by corn boy.
Idk I think the Sino Soviet split was pretty disastrous and is partially to blame for the fall of the USSR. Even if Khrushchev was wrong to denounce Stalin, there were reasons why Soviet leadership was trying to lower tensions with the west. It’s also not like allying with Nixon and Pol Pot was genuinely a better move geopolitically.
As far as I’m aware there were border skirmishes prior to China’s invasion. However, there was a context for that. The Sino-Soviet split led to China becoming very suspicious of Vietnam’s motives since they maintained good relations with the USSR. As such, China supported the Khmer Rouge in order to gain influence in the region.
I don’t have to explain why that was a huge mistake. However for context, Vietnam was forced to invade Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge crossed the border and massacred thousands of Vietnamese civilians. As a consequence Chinese leadership basically believed they had been encircled by the USSR and its allies. IIRC there was a troop buildup at the border as China tried to incite rebellion from ethnic minorities including ethnic Chinese within Vietnam. This is the context for the border skirmishes and the eventual invasion.
For a little more context: The rise of the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pot was basically triggered by the US carpet bombing Cambodia. After the US military got thrown the fuck out of Viet Nam, the direct invasion may have ended, but the CIA decided to double down and keep the war going through regional proxy forces, namely the Khmer Rouge, which the CIA was arming, funding and providing military intelligence to. The Khmer Rouge butchered a lot of civilians, but failed pathetically at invading Viet Nam and repelling counterforces. Border regions of Cambodia spent a decade under NVA occupation as a result, while the CIA and KR ran operations out of N. Cambodia and Thailand.
The CIA also kept stirring up fear and conflict with Viet Nam’s other neighbors, which is where that narrative of “The NVA and USSR won’t stop at the border” came from. My understanding is that the CIA was directly in contact with and trying to convince the PRC that Pol Pot was the real communist revolutionary and needed help, and that the Soviets were using a puppet regime to encircle China. Ofc it was just projection and domino theory bullshit. Deng and the entire PRC should have fucking known better.
Well this is why I think Deng was right to ensure the CPC maintained leadership within the PRC rather than pursue political liberalization alongside economic liberalization. The CPC may not be perfect. However, I do believe their structures allow them to course correct as needed and advance capable members into leadership.
That’s why I think they were even able to pull back when Deng’s reforms went to far. It’s also why I think they’ve been able to address corruption and uneven development under Xi.
Short version: he opened china to investment from western capital. The plan was to use western capital to fund the construction of factories with the condition of technology sharing. Gambit was capitalism would willing sell all of its advantages in order to gain profit. The risk being that capitalists would have sway in China (and leftists constantly purity testing China).
Yeah that, and to expand a little, he was often derided by hardliners for being a sellout, and the plan to develop productive forces in China had some close calls from a full capitalist restoration. It seems to have worked out so far however, since the PRC was originally an impoverished pariah state, and now it is more advanced in many respects than the west. The work that needs to be done now is to take the productive forces that the capitalists gleefully supplied in exchange for cheap labour and turn it towards domestic production and consumption.
I don’t think the drop in share prices matter that much. The dips from previous announcements of sanctions went away quickly, because the chip industry overall is in a very strong position globally.
This is really the crux of the issue, and not so much geopolitics. Some of the US companies that pushed for the sanctions (like Micron tech) have themselves suffered from Chinese retaliation (Micron tech “mysteriously” failed its cybersecurity review in China, and China has clamped down on germanium exports).
Amazing to see western corporate interests just openly dictating government policy. The rest of the article just plainly lays out which company is telling its government to do what. We’ve dropped even the pretenses.
You mean like the time the CIA couped Guatemala in 1954 for banana companies?
I don’t think their pleas will work. They’re not important or big enough. NVIDIA went begging for the US to let them continue to profit from China and they’re way more important and they said no and the head of sanctions basically directly threatened them saying she’d adjust sanctions daily to prevent them getting around them with new products if necessary. Though financial capital has had and still has some interests in China, industrial capital in the west increasingly doesn’t benefit from continued trade and in fact as much of it is defense adjacent, benefits from fear-mongering, sanctions, and increasing tensions.
I have little doubt the US will continue to press the sanctions button harder and harder on China. They will hurt their own industries but help them briefly with short-term protectionism benefits. In the end though it will force China to develop their own which will hurt the west but that’s deferred pain and they hope to have a better plan or position by then.
Yeah I guess. There’s still something about seeing the fuckery with your own eyes. It’s one thing reading about banana dictatorships in the history books, and another to live through a tech dictatorship right now.
Its insane how much our favourite capitalist roader was vindicated holy shit. All that’s left is to press the communism button.
Tbf only left-deviationists like the gang of four called im that.
Capitalist roader (affectionate)
I’m not sure I would call him vindicated. He definitely bought into some of the free market economics of the 1980s which could have ended really badly. Reform and opening up only really succeeded because the Chinese government was willing to slow the pace of reform when Deng was pushing them to move faster. He also had China invade Vietnam which was a huge L.
True, the Sino Vietnamese war was an L, as expected of post Sino Soviet split Chinese foreign policy. And yeah I had the same concerns over liberalizing too fast, esp in the Jiang and Hu era, but it seems like that’s been reigned in too. Trust the process I guess.
I might be biased, but didn’t Vietnam repeatedly raid the border with USSR support before China invaded, and withdrew within a few days after taking several cities?
That is correct, there were border raids which prompted the invasion, but the Sino Soviet split is what caused the worsening relations which led to that. Basically, the invasion was cringe, even if there was some justification for it, but what was more cringe was the repudiation of Stalin and the revisionism in the USSR that followed by corn boy.
Idk I think the Sino Soviet split was pretty disastrous and is partially to blame for the fall of the USSR. Even if Khrushchev was wrong to denounce Stalin, there were reasons why Soviet leadership was trying to lower tensions with the west. It’s also not like allying with Nixon and Pol Pot was genuinely a better move geopolitically.
As far as I’m aware there were border skirmishes prior to China’s invasion. However, there was a context for that. The Sino-Soviet split led to China becoming very suspicious of Vietnam’s motives since they maintained good relations with the USSR. As such, China supported the Khmer Rouge in order to gain influence in the region.
I don’t have to explain why that was a huge mistake. However for context, Vietnam was forced to invade Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge crossed the border and massacred thousands of Vietnamese civilians. As a consequence Chinese leadership basically believed they had been encircled by the USSR and its allies. IIRC there was a troop buildup at the border as China tried to incite rebellion from ethnic minorities including ethnic Chinese within Vietnam. This is the context for the border skirmishes and the eventual invasion.
For a little more context: The rise of the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pot was basically triggered by the US carpet bombing Cambodia. After the US military got thrown the fuck out of Viet Nam, the direct invasion may have ended, but the CIA decided to double down and keep the war going through regional proxy forces, namely the Khmer Rouge, which the CIA was arming, funding and providing military intelligence to. The Khmer Rouge butchered a lot of civilians, but failed pathetically at invading Viet Nam and repelling counterforces. Border regions of Cambodia spent a decade under NVA occupation as a result, while the CIA and KR ran operations out of N. Cambodia and Thailand.
The CIA also kept stirring up fear and conflict with Viet Nam’s other neighbors, which is where that narrative of “The NVA and USSR won’t stop at the border” came from. My understanding is that the CIA was directly in contact with and trying to convince the PRC that Pol Pot was the real communist revolutionary and needed help, and that the Soviets were using a puppet regime to encircle China. Ofc it was just projection and domino theory bullshit. Deng and the entire PRC should have fucking known better.
Well this is why I think Deng was right to ensure the CPC maintained leadership within the PRC rather than pursue political liberalization alongside economic liberalization. The CPC may not be perfect. However, I do believe their structures allow them to course correct as needed and advance capable members into leadership.
That’s why I think they were even able to pull back when Deng’s reforms went to far. It’s also why I think they’ve been able to address corruption and uneven development under Xi.
Western leftists criticizing Deng for his shitty chess moves when it turns out he was playing Go the whole time.
Hey that’s my line!
I’m not too familiar with Deng. Could you explain more of his geo-politics? Thanks in advance comrade.
Short version: he opened china to investment from western capital. The plan was to use western capital to fund the construction of factories with the condition of technology sharing. Gambit was capitalism would willing sell all of its advantages in order to gain profit. The risk being that capitalists would have sway in China (and leftists constantly purity testing China).
Thanks!
Yeah that, and to expand a little, he was often derided by hardliners for being a sellout, and the plan to develop productive forces in China had some close calls from a full capitalist restoration. It seems to have worked out so far however, since the PRC was originally an impoverished pariah state, and now it is more advanced in many respects than the west. The work that needs to be done now is to take the productive forces that the capitalists gleefully supplied in exchange for cheap labour and turn it towards domestic production and consumption.
for more check out https://redsails.org/china-has-billionaires/ it’s not specifically about Dengism but should give you more than enough context to understand it
This has a lot of introductory info on SWCC (Socialism With Chinese Characteristics)
This is pry the best introductory article on SWCC:
The long game and it’s contradictions.
and a good introduction to Deng is his interview with Oriana Fallaci.
More of his writings are on https://dengxiaopingworks.wordpress.com/