3/3:

“Does a candid examination of this example really support the allegation that Marxism is reinforced dogmatism? On the contrary, Marxism remains falsifiable. Marxists can, it is true, readily account for the socialist revolution starting in Russia. But if it had started, say, in the Far East or Central Africa, or if it had never started at all, that could not have been accounted for, and really would have falsified Marxism. But it did start, and started where Marxism permitted it to start. In point of fact Marx himself, in his later correspondence, wrote that his observations were leading him to the conclusion that revolution was unlikely after all to start in the industrial countries. Things were happening in these countries to postpone the revolution he had earlier expected, but in Russia to accelerate it. His approach to questions was the normal one of a scientific thinker who is continually ready to revise former estimates in the light of new evidence, but does not find it necessary to scrap the whole fundamental theory of his science every time such a revision is indicated.

“Similarly the fact that after the Second World War there was for many years full employment in Britain, in contradiction to Marx’s statements about capitalism always creating “a reserve” of unemployment, does not lead British Marxists to conclude that the whole Marxist theory of capitalism and socialism has been falsified, but only that certain special conditions had temporarily come into existence in Britain.[*]

“Scientists generally agree that if predictions made in the light of a general theory are falsified, and it is then proposed to “save” the theory by adding “supplementary hypotheses”, the theory must none the less be scrapped if the only evidence offered for the supplementary hypotheses is that they save the theory. Thus, for example, the old Ptolemaic theory that the planets move in circular orbits round the earth failed to accord with observations, but was “saved” by postulating irregularities, or epicycles, in the motions of the planets. However, because the only evidence offered for these epicycles was that they saved the theory, scientists now generally agree that observation has falsified the Ptolemaic theory.

“It has been suggested that this is how Marxism is “saved” whenever what happens deviates from a prediction. But in fact the Marxist procedure has never been to invent supplementary hypotheses. For example, to account for full employment in Britain we do not invent a supplementary hypothesis—a kind of economic epicycle. We simply examine what has actually happened, which has by no means exceeded the bounds of possibility allowed by the general theory of Marxism, and find that it has led to consequences predictable and accountable within the theory. And similarly with the Russian Revolution.

“The rescue of Marxism in such cases is interestingly paralleled by a second example from the theory of planetary motions. After the Ptolemaic theory had been supplanted by Kepler’s laws, certain irregularities were observed in the motion of the planet Uranus which did not accord with the predictions made by the laws. So it was suggested that there was in fact another planet, whose existence had previously passed unnoticed, the influence of which would account for the irregularities. Sure enough, this other planet (now named Neptune) was observed when telescopes were directed in the right direction—so Kepler’s laws were “saved”, since they did not “forbid” there being another planet but allowed for its existence. It is just the same with Marxism, when social “irregularities” (such as the Russian Revolution or full employment in Britain) take place—we look for and find the causes of these “irregularities”.”

[*] I added this footnote to point out a Marxist response to this problem. Kwame Nkrumah argues that capitalist powers managed to export their internal contradictions to their colonies (See Neocolonialism: The Last Stage of Imperialism). So on a global scale, Marx was still right, capitalism continued to need and create a reserve army of labour even after WWII. But that workforce was largely located outside of Britain. Moreover, we now know that technology (e.g. automated tills at supermarkets) has coincided with higher unemployment, and that the low unemployment in post-war Britain was short-lived. So the post-war data viewed from within Britain did not refute Marx’s general theory. The Brits simply ignored or lacked relevant data. You may like to follow up this section with ‘4. Does Marxism Allow Logical Contradictions’ in the same Cornforth chapter, as people who claim that Marxism is not falsifiable tend also to believe that dialectical contradiction means that Marxism accepts logical contradictions.